2009 Predictions

We all know that 2009 will be a tough year. A struggling economy mixed with a questionable year for games will make all developers, journalists and gamers decide some very tough decisions. Only a few days in and this year already claimed a victim with Ziff Davis' Electronic Gaming Monthly and 1UP.com.

That's a reason why there are less predictions for this year. This is such a difficult year that anything can happen. The 2008 predictions were fairly easy and tons of good content was on its way. This year I wouldn't be surprised if Sony merged with Tomy and became Tony with some cartoon Italian guy for the logo. This year was harder to predict, the industry has really gone in weird directions. So anything's possible, and here's my version for anything:



1) Top selling game of 2009? Wii Play. Expect Wii Sports Resort up there too.

2) Highest rated game of 2009? Killzone 2? Resident Evil 5? The Conduit? Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2? Probably not, it’ll be something smaller. That goes double to my personal Game of the Year 2009.

3) I keep thinking the PS3 will do better and the Wii to do worse, and time after time I’m wrong. So I’ll predict it again. The Wii will still sell the most but not as much as the stellar 2008 sales (Two million in one month?! Really?). The PS3 didn’t fare so well this year but I predict it’ll sell better than it did ion 2008. The 360 will remain in the middle and keep a similar trend like it has before. 2008 it went Wii, DS, 360, PSP, PS3. However in 2009, it’ll go Wii, DS, 360, PS3, PSP.

4) I put PSP in last for a reason. Expect that downward trend continuing.

5) Sony will probably discontinue the 80GB and 160 GB models for some other models again. But expect a decent price drop too.

6) In America, DSi won’t be as popular as it is in Japan. If Nintendo continues the Lite model, expect that to sell more. It’s not as casual friendly and hardcore gamers either a) Already has a Lite or b) hate the fact it has no GBA slot or c) hate it because it does not enough DSi content to factor a purchase.

7) Lots of popular studios have gone down lately. Factor-5 (Star Wars GCN games, Lair), Black Box (Need for Speed) and Free Radical (Ex-Rare employees, Timesplitters, Haze) have all closed doors. Expect more studios to shut down in this fashion.

8) The PSP is selling decently, but not much is coming out for the platform. Other than the bigger games like Dissidia: Final Fantasy and Madden 2010, don’t expect much from it.

9) I just read the latest Nintendo Power and saw Ubisoft’s new TMNT article and got a little excited, but I predict the game will not be the best it could have been. Regardless that it’s developed by Game Arts (Grandia, Super Smash Bros Brawl) and former members of Team Ninja (Dead or Alive, Ninja Gaiden).

10) Microsoft is pretty mysterious for 2009, not much was announced for them outside Halo 3: ODST and Halo Wars. Expect the poorest first party lineup from Microsoft since the 360’s launch. Like Nintendo was in 2008. Makes you wonder if Alan Wake will be focused on and actually release.

11) Nintendo needs to prove themselves this year. Their top selling games are older games like Wii Play, New Super Mario Bros and Nintendogs. New stuff needs to come out to refresh gamers, both casual and hardcore. A new Zelda will finally be announced (not released) this year and will probably be the sole hardcore game while a sole casual hit (Wii Sports Resort most likely) will sell like crazy. Sin and Punishment 2 will probably do decent but will only sell to fans on the first. Casual-wise, expect more DS “Tools” like Personal Trainer: Cooking mixed with a new Brain game. Even with a Zelda announcement, don’t expect much from them once more.

12) Let’s focus on Square-Enix. Final Fantasy XIII won’t come out in 2009 in America but will in Japan at the end of the year. Dragon Quest IX will be released in both territories in 2009 and Dragon Quest X won’t touch 2009 in either territory. Outside Star Ocean 4, don’t expect a ton this year from Square-Enix.

13) EA has redeemed themselves to core gamers. Before, EA were nothing but sports and licensed games and their quality has been degrading year after year. However in 2008, we’ve seen hit after hit from them. Great new IP’s like Dead Space and Mirror’s Edge launched. Their established franchises like Burnout Paradise and Battlefield: Bad Company were impressive. EA Sports has done wonders with Madden NFL 2009, FIFA Soccer 2009, Tiger Woods 2009 All-Play and NHL 2009. EA has even been pushing Wii efforts like Boom Blox and Facebreaker KO Party. You would think they could do no wrong, but they have been tanking thanks to lack of earnings versus the spending to make these awesome games. They had to cut 10% of their workforce and close studios like Black Box. So what’s their 2009 lineup? A lot less. EA Sports will be the same as always, but not much in games like Dead Space will come out. Heck, other than Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings Conquest, Skate 2 and the 2010 Sports lineup, EA doesn’t have much of a lineup.

14) …Which sounds like it’ll happen to Sega and its Wii projects. Sega has scored publishing rights to the Conduit and Mad World while publishing The House of the Dead Overkill. These three Wii games are some of the most hardcore efforts to the Wii’s lineup. Sadly without a killer marketing strategy set up, these three games will not do well on shelves. Best case scenario would be 300,000 copies sold each. Though Sega’s fourth Wii game, Sonic and the Black Knight, will probably sell more then those three. On Sega’s 360/PS3 front: Sonic’s Ultimate Genesis Collection will do great while Alien: Colonial Marines will do mediocre, and not much else. No other Sonic game will be released on any platform this year.

15) Now my E3 prediction. It’s back to normal and I expect Nintendo will win it this year. In 2006, Nintendo adapted to the killer show and made an excellent showing for the Wii’s debut. The next two years were the reformatted E3, and Nintendo reformatted as well. Frankly, both sucked. Now with E3 back to normal, Nintendo should too. Though I doubt most they announce won’t hit this year. Sony has done pretty well with E3 but I see the least amount of content from them. Microsoft has dominated the last E3 but expect a lamer show from them this year.

16) Lastly, my bold prediction. If Microsoft wants to continue their positive trend for their scarce 2009, they need something big. It’s a big third party exclusive. Or one that Microsoft will take over as publisher.

...And that's Never Unplaying's predictions for 2009. Not as much as last year's, but its beefier. The extra detail makes it harder for the 100% true.